IN NAYPYIDAW, DEMOCRACY DAWNS

Last week, Myanmar took one of its most definitive steps towards democracy: It swore in a Parliament comprised mostly of civilian lawmakers, brought to power through a largely free and fair election. However, the new Government still faces many challenges

Ruled by the military junta for five decades, and under a semi-military Government that secured its mandate though a rigged election for the last five years, Myanmar last week took one of its most definitive steps towards becoming a functional democracy: It swore in a new Parliament comprised mostly of civilian lawmakers brought to power through a largely free and fair election. In the 664-seat legislature, political icon and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, which won a landslide victory in the parliamentary election held last year on November 8, has 390 members, while the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which was previously in charge, has only 42.

However, this does not mean that the military has been marginalised in Parliament since Army-appointed representatives still hold 25 per cent of the seats that were not open for election. But even factoring in this block of unelected members, it is noteworthy that the NLD still has a clear 50 per cent majority in Parliament.

The much-awaited big decision now is: Who will be the next President? NLD chief Suu Kyi is barred from taking the top job, as her sons hold British passports and the Constitution of Myanmar prohibits those with foreign nationals in their immediate family from the Presidency. This clause was specifically inserted to keep Ms Suu Kyi out of the presidential palace and it is possible that in due course of time, the Constitution will be amended.

But for now, there is no clarity on who will be the next leader. Ms Suu Kyi, who has long expressed her desire to be President, is holding back channel talks with the military and The New York Times has reported that the NLD may be offering the Chief Minister’s post in three key States to the USDP. But it’s difficult to tell how these talks are progressing. If the talks fail at least for the time being (keeping the option open for Ms Suu Kyi to take over the presidency later in the term), the focus will be on a proxy President: Ms Suu Kyi has no clear deputy in the party but more importantly, she has already said that irrespective of who wears the President’s tag, it is she who will be the leader of any NLD Government.

Either way, the new Government faces many challenges. First is Government formation. Having been in opposition for so many years, NLD members have no experience in national governance or institutional reform. This will make it enormously difficult for the new Government to guide the country through this crucial period of transition and deliver meaningful change and progress. The public, of course, has high expectations and it will be a huge setback to the democratic process if the Government fails to deliver, and at the end of the next five years, there is much public resentment.

Second, the NLD will have to carefully manage its relations with the military, which remains a powerful force. Ms Suu Kyi has done this with aplomb in recent years. She has a good working relationship with outgoing President Thein Sein  an important factor in the steady democratic transition of the past five years. Remember, when the parliamentary election was held in 2010, Ms Suu Kyi’s NLD, having been unlawfully denied the opportunity to form the Government even after having won the election in 1990, had boycotted. However, since 2012, after election laws were reformed, the NLD participated in several by-elections, all of which it won.

So, to that end, the NLD is off to a safe start. However, one mustn’t undermine the challenges ahead. For one, the possibility of a proxy President will add another variable to the mix and there is no telling how that it will affect the carefully-set equation between the NLD and the old military establishment. Moreover, the military is expected to keep the key portfolios of Defence, Home and Border Operations. This will further complicate matters of day-to-day governance and can easily become a source of friction. It could even lead to a full confrontation that may undermine Myanmar’s democratic transition especially since the military still has emergency powers.

Outside politics, the big issue for the new Government is fructifying the peace process with the ethnic armed groups. The Thein Sein Government made major progress in this regard last year when it signed a peace deal with the ethnic armed groups. However, fighting has continued despite the agreement to cease fire and violent clashes in Shan and Kachin States are threatening to undermine the peace process. This could lead to large-scale economic turbulence that Myanmar is hardly prepared to deal with. 

Also, the situation in Rakhine State, where most Muslim Rohingya are disenfranchised, remains volatile. At home, any decision of the NLD Government on this issue will be viewed through a nationalist lens but outside Myanmar, it will be seen as test of character for the peace laureate-politician. Notably, Ms Suu Kyi has maintained a studied silence on the Rohingya issue which hasn’t gone unnoticed in the international community.

Another long term challenge before the new Government will be dealing with China. Myanmar was close to becoming a Chinese satellite state when the junta decided to the reverse course. This has led to some cooling of ties between China and Myanmar but the latter is still deeply entrenched and unlikely to back away without a fight.

Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD will need deft diplomatic skills to shepherd Myanmar’s ongoing re-engagement with the West, without rocking the boat with a more assertive China that is presumable concerned about its interests being harmed. For this geo-political re-orientation to succeed, the Western countries must also understand that while do have a significant role to play in bringing positive change in Myanmar, and the new Government will, of course, dip into the large reservoir of support and goodwill but everybody needs to be cognizant of domestic and regional sensitivities.

This is also where India comes into play. Myanmar stands at the crossroads of India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East policies; and it is crucial to the development of India’s own North-Eastern States as well as its relations with South East Asia. However, India is still only a minor player in Myanmar despite its longstanding historical and civilisational ties. Though New Delhi has been pragmatic enough to do business with the junta since the 1990s, this has been far below potential. Meanwhile, other regional powers such as Singapore and Thailand, not to mention China, have soared ahead.

India has a lot of catching up to do but a good place to start will be accelerating the transport connectivity projects that are already in the pipeline. At the top of the list is the Rs2,904-crore Kaladan project, which includes a 225km-waterway on the Kaladan River from Sittwe Port to Kaletwa and from there, a 62km-roadway from Kaletwa to the India-Myanmar border. The India-Myanmar-Thailand highway and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor are the two other important projects that require immediate attention.

This article was published in The Pioneer on February 8, 2016