MALDIVES STUMBLES YET AGAIN

The renewed political persecution of Opposition leader and former President Mohamed Nasheed is an important diplomatic challenge for the Modi Government. India must help Maldives stay the democratic course

The political crisis in the Maldives, stemming from the controversial arrest of former President Mohamed Nasheed, is one of the most significant diplomatic tests for the Government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Mr Nasheed was the archipelago’s first democratically elected head of state and remains one of the most pro-India leaders in the sub-continent.

How India responds to what is clearly a case of political persecution in this context will answer four questions. First, how does India treat its friends and is it willing to go the extra mile for them? Second, does India have the diplomatic (as opposed to the economic, geographic or even historic) clout to maintain its position as the foremost power in the sub-continent? Third, especially with another regional power — China — pushing into India’s near abroad, does New Delhi have the ability protect its interests? Fourth, is India, as the world’s largest democracy, willing to walk the talk on securing democratic ideals in its neighbourhood? 

Let’s start with the Government of India’s official response to the crisis: On February 23, a day after Mr Nasheed was arrested and roughed up by police on his way to court, the Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement expressing concern at the “recent developments in Maldives” including the “manhandling” of the former President.

As such, the statement was fairly routine, if not downright insipid. At least a section of the commentariat here would have liked a stronger response but these are still early days and one needn’t always fire the big guns in the opening salvo itself. A measured response in public is fine for now, as long as a firm message is being sent across in private.

The Government of India cannot be seen as meddling in the internal affairs of another sovereign nation but neither can it perceived as sitting idly as its friend and ally is given the short shrift. In other words, India will be in the crossfire between the Maldives’s ruling coalition and its opposition parties — but not for the first time.

In the run-up to the 2014 general election that brought the incumbent regime, led by President Abdullah Yameen, to power, there was a similar political crisis in 2013 wherein the interim Government of the time, had sought to keep Mr Nasheed out of the electoral race. Notably, this interim Government had taken over after Mr Nasheed was controversially ousted from office in February 2012, following a mutiny by the Maldivian police and the Army.

The removal marked the return of the old guard in Male and the process came a full circle with the presidency of Mr Yameen, the half-brother of Mr Maumoon Gayoom who had ruled Maldives with an iron hand for three decades.

In 2012, as Male slipped into political turmoil, the Indian Government was caught napping. It was unable to protect Mr Nasheed even though the latter had reportedly asked for Indian assistance. In 2013, however, the Manmohan Singh administration did a far better job: After Mr Nasheed took refuge in the Indian High Commission in Male, Indian diplomats secured a peace deal of sorts that allowed Mr Nasheed to fight the election in 2014. Whether the Modi Government will be able to do something similar now and extricate Mr Nasheed again, will be closely watched.

For now, there has been little movement in the public domain but it may be pertinent to note that when a high-level delegation from Mr Nasheed’s party, the Maldivian Democratic Party, visited New Delhi between 19 and 22 February, at a time when the crisis was just building up, not a single member of the Modi Government met with the Maldivian leaders.

Four days earlier, on February 15, Maldivian Foreign Minister Dunya Maumoon (she is Mr Gayoom’s daughter) had called on External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in New Delhi and reportedly reiterated Male’s commitment that there would be no political witch-hunt.

Delhi seems to have taken these words at face value and gone ahead with planning the Prime Minister’s Indian Ocean tour which was to include Sri Lanka, Seychelles, Mauritius and Maldives later this month. Now, it seems that Maldives leg has been put on hold. The MEA has not announced any dates for Maldives even though Ms Maumoon has already said that her Government will be welcoming Mr Modi soon.

A prime ministerial trip to Maldives at this point will be a de facto (and ill-advised) endorsement of the policies of the Yameen Government while a refusal to make the trip is sure to annoy the regime, which is already on the defensive. Note that even before Delhi had put out an official statement on the Nasheed crisis, Ms Maumoon publicly called upon India to abide by the Panchsheel principles and steer clear of domestic politics. 

Generally speaking, the Indian establishment has strong ties with the Gayoom/Yameen camp as well, but those linkages haven’t prevented the latter from seeking closer relations with China, occasionally even at the cost of upsetting India. The GMR controversy is, of course, well-known in this context but there are also more recent, instances. For example, in December 2014, the Yameen Government signed a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese on the Maritime Silk Route project; Male and Beijing are already negotiating a free trade agreement; the two have also set up a joint commission to monitor large infrastructure projects.

China is already building housing units on Hulhumale island, and a link road at Laamu Atoll which has been identified as a potential special economic zone; it is also doing a feasibility report on constructing a bridge connecting the Maldives’ only international airport on Hulhule island to Male city and has expressed interest in developing the airport as well. The Maldives is also looking to collaborate with China in oil and gas exploration projects.

The Yameen Government’s overtures to China have been so blatant that its own Ministers have expressed concern. It is assumed that this is why Mr Mohamed Nazim, who was serving as Defence Minister until January 20, was removed from office, following a midnight raid on his house on January 18. He was arrested on February 10. Aware of how closely the Maldivian Defence Forces work with India, Mr Nazim had red-flagged his Government’s “exponentially growing” security ties with China, to use the words of the Chinese Ambassador in Male. For example, China recently gifted 150 motorbikes to Maldivian Police.

Incidentally, Mr Nazim was at the forefront of the protest against Mr Nasheed in 2012 but has since been pushed off the regime ship. Within the Maldivian political establishment, there seems to be growing unease about the Yameen Government’s high-handedness. The Jumhooree Party recently quit the ruling coalition and joined hands with the MDP, while the Adhaalath Party has also been making some noises. India should take advantage of these developments to ensure that the country stays the democratic course.

This article was published in the op-ed section of The Pioneer on March 5, 2015