Aung San Suu Kyi's public announcement of her presidential aspirations at the World Economic Forum meet, completes her transformation from being a mere political dissident to an Opposition leader who desires to lead Myanmar in the near future
World leaders, industry titans and civil society activists from around the globe had gathered in the newly-built capital city to celebrate what the Forum called the ‘courageous transformation’ of Myanmar and to chart that country’s way forward. It was against this backdrop that Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s best known pro-democracy icon, announced to the world her desire to take on her country’s top job.
“I want to run for President, and I’m quite frank about it”, said the 67-year-old at the Forum, where she was the undisputed star of the show. While this was not the first time that Ms Suu Kyi had spoken of her presidential ambitions, her forthright approach combined with the timing and the venue amplified the impact of her statement which made headlines around the world. Be that as it may, the fact remains that Ms Suu Kyi cannot run for election, and she knows that. Under the present Constitution, anyone who is married to a foreign citizen or whose children hold foreign passports is prohibited from running for either President or the Vice President’s office. Ms Suu Kyi’s deceased husband was British and her sons also hold British passports. A Constitutional amendment is of course the most obvious solution to this problem but it is easier said than done, as several procedural difficulties stand in the way.
First, such an amendment to the Constitution would require a 75 per cent parliamentary approval which will be hard to come by, since 25 per cent of the seats in Parliament are reserved for the military while the bulk of the remaining is occupied by military loyalists. Second, even if Parliament were to somehow pass the amendment, the proposed change would then have to be approved by the majority in a national referendum before it could come into effect. Organising such a referendum is laborious and time-consuming, and offers a perfectly legitimate excuse for the Generals looking to prevent Ms Suu Kyi from running for President.
In other words, a long and arduous path lies ahead before Ms Suu Kyi’s desire to lead her country can turn into reality. And through much of that journey she will have to manoeuvre and out-manoeuvre the men in uniform who, while they may have grudgingly warmed up to her, somewhat, in recent times, they are by no means willing to concede any real political space or power yet. Let us not forget that the rule regarding relatives with foreign citizenship was introduced by the junta only in 2008 —just two years before the landmark general election of 2010 that paved the way for a semi-civilian Government to take over the reins from the military — with the sole intention of keeping Ms Suu Kyi away from the presidency.
And if that isn’t enough, sample this: According to the Wall Street Journal, immediately after Ms Suu Kyi announced her presidential ambitions at the World Economic Forum, President Thein Sein (a former Army General who shed his fatigues to take charge as a civilian ruler in 2010) cancelled her invitation to the gala dinner that he was hosting later that evening. And this is despite reports that the two leaders share a strong, personal bond that many observers believe played an important role in facilitating Ms Suu Kyi’s return to the political mainstream in Myanmar.
But either way, there is no denying that with Ms Suu Kyi’s public announcement of her presidential aspirations at the World Economic Forum, her transformation from a political dissident to an Opposition leader is now complete. And while there is little by way to predict how it will shape her career as a politician in the years ahead — especially since much of it will also be determined by how the military responds to her political rise — this is a good time to look back at the past two years that she has spent in active politics after being released from decades of house arrest.
Three events stand out: First, Ms Suu Kyi’s cleansweep victory in the by-elections held in April 2012 that saw her National League for Democracy win 43 of the 44 seats it had contested. Not that there was ever any doubt about how much support she commandeered among her people, but still, the electoral victory was an important indicator of the power she could wield within a democratically-elected Government — something that must have made the Generals cringe.
Second, Ms Suu Kyi’s support for the Letpadaung copper mine in Sagaing Division was both a huge risk and a political game-changer. The mine is currently being developed by a Chinese firm and has been met with severe opposition from locals who accuse the Government-run Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited of land grab. Ms Suu Kyi headed the commission that investigated the matter and reported in favour of the regime, as she believed that commitments made by the previous Government to foreign investors had to be honoured — or else, potential investors will be reluctant to invest in the country. This is something that Myanmar simply cannot afford. While this bought her the Generals’ confidence as someone who was a ‘fair player’, it also led to much criticism from certain segments of the public which felt that she had sold out to the military; others pointed fingers at her for supporting crony capitalism.
Third, Ms Suu Kyi’s studied silence on the issue of Rohingya Muslims who violently clashed with the country’s Buddhist majority, also disappointed many who expected her, as a proponent of democratic values, to take a stronger position. But as a politician, Ms Suu Kyi saw no merit in polarising an already difficult and historically complex situation. Also, by highlighting the issue she would have played into the hands of the military, which would like nothing better than a ‘national security’ crisis that could shore up its image and importance at a time such as this.
That, as an opposition leader, Ms Suu Kyi faces a tough challenge, is without a doubt. One only has to look at how the regime has ensnared her — while losing no political capital itself — in both the cases described above, to understand the gravity of the situation. And there will be more of these double-edged swords in the future too. For instance, there have been reports that after the 2015 election, the regime may offer her the position of Foreign Minister. Not only will such a move make the Generals look good, it will effectively allow them to enlist Ms Suu Kyi as their official spokesperson. For Ms Suu Kyi, of course, this would just be more of the tightrope situation that she is already having to navigate.
(This article was published in the op-ed section of The Pioneer on June 13, 2013.)
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