NEW POLITICAL ORDER IN NAYPIDAW

Htin Kyaw is the first civilian to become President of Myanmar since 1962. But his office will be undercut by his party chief, who said that she will rule above the President, and by the continued presence of the military in the legislative and executive wings of Government

Four months after the National League for Democracy won the parliamentary election and several weeks since the new Parliament, comprised mostly of civilian lawmakers brought to power through free and fair election, was sworn in, Myanmar finally has a new President: U Htin Kyaw. He is a confidant of NLD chief and Myanmar’s icon of democracy Aung San Suu Kyi who, ideally, should have occupied the top post but couldn’t because of a constitutional clause that prohibits those with foreign nationals in their immediate family from the presidential palace. Suu Kyi’s two sons are British citizens as was her late husband. Several rounds of negotiations, including three between Suu Kyi and Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in recent weeks, to either amend the Constitution or at least find a way around it, failed to bear fruit. It is still possible that a compromise may be worked out later in the term for Suu Kyi to become President but for now, all that’s in the realm of speculation.

This brings us back to Htin Kyaw who will be sworn into office on April 1. The 69-year-old hasn’t held any major public office and is a little known political figure. However, he has been close to Suu Kyi for many years — the two even went to grade school together. An economist by training, Htin Kyaw also studied computer programming in England and then served as a bureaucrat for some years. He quit his Government job in the early 1990s and then committed himself to party work. In the past three decades, he has worked closely with Suu Kyi, advising her on party and policy matters, particularly on foreign affairs. He also heads the Daw Khi Kyi Foundation, a charitable organisation run by the NLD and named after Suu Kyi’s mother. 

Notably, though Htin Kyaw himself may not have been a prominent figure until his presidential nomination, he definitely has political pedigree and is, of course, part of the NLD inner circle. His father, Min Thu Win, was a literary giant in Myanmar as well as a member of the NLD. In 1990, he was elected to Parliament but resigned eight years later. Htin Kyaw’s wife Su Su Lwin is also a Member of Parliament from the NLD and is on the Foreign Affairs committee. Her father, U Lwin, was one of the founding members of the NLD, working alongside Suu Kyi’s father and Burmese independence hero Major General Aung San. A decorated soldier, he had served as Minister of Finance, Deputy Prime Minister and Member of the State Council before resigning from Government in 1980.

Htin Kyaw is the first civilian to hold the post of President of Myanmar since 1962 but his position will still be undercut by two factors: First, his party chief’s statement, incidentally to an Indian news outlet late last year, that she will rule from above the President; and second, the continued presence of the military in both the legislative and executive wings of the Government. In the first case, there is no telling how the working relationship between the Htin Kyaw and Suu Kyi will play out in matters of day-to-day governance — and whether this arrangement may cause unnecessary friction or even factionalism in the days to come. In the second case, the military can be expected to hold onto its core interests but if the trends that we have seen since 2010 hold strong, then there should also be a continued, even if slow, devolution of power from the military to civilian authorities.

Currently, representatives appointed by the Tatmadaw (military) hold 25 per cent of the seats in Parliament which are not open for election. The Tatmadaw also retains direct control of the Ministries of Defence, Home and Border Affairs. Importantly, it also controls the powerful National Defence and Security Council. The 11-member body that comprises the President, the two Vice Presidents, the Speakers of the two Houses of Parliament, the Ministers for Defence, Home, Border Affairs and Foreign Affairs, the Commander-in-Chief and the Deputy Commander-in-Chief, is dominated by the military and has expansive powers including calling of diplomatic ties and declaring an emergency. It will be interesting to see if Suu Kyi secures a seat on this council, possibly through the Foreign Minister’s chair.

Additionally, the Tatmadaw also has one of its own in the Office of the Vice President as well. In Myanmar’s political system, both Houses of Parliament nominate one presidential candidate each while the military nominates a third. The nominee with the highest number of votes becomes President while the next two candidates become First and Second Vice President respectively.

In this case, Htin Kyaw, nominated by Lower House of Parliament, won 360 of the 652 votes while the Tatmadaw’s candidate, General Myint Swe, came second with 213 votes, while Upper House candidate (also nominated by the NLD) Henry Van Theo came in third with 79 votes. Van Theo is an ethnic Chin and a Christian and his candidacy adds the much needed minority representation to the executive. However,  Gen Myint Swe, who will serve as First Vice President, may be a possible trouble-spot. He is considered to be a military hardliner and has an unfavourable reputation. Even though NLD leaders didn’t oppose his nomination in public, it is believed that in private they were dismayed. The General led the crackdown on pro-democracy students and monks in 2007 which hasn’t been forgotten and neither has his inability to deliver good governance as the Chief Minister of Yangon gone unnoticed.

In short, the Tatmadaw will retain considerable executive powers, and the success of Myanmar’s first civilian Government in 50 years will depend on its close cooperation with the military. For example, if the Government has to secure a lasting peace with the various armed ethnic groups, it will need the support of the military. Similarly, if the military is in a position where it can at least share credit for economic and political reforms, it will be more willing to the support those reforms. In other words, this current arrangement, though a compromise, is not necessarily a bad thing. In the very least, it factors in the socio-political realities of Myanmar, where the military is an all-pervading force with deeply-entrenched interests that will not go away overnight. This may not make for a picture perfect new democracy but in the long term might prove to be a more stable and resilient model for political transition.

(This article was published in oped section of The Pioneer on March 17, 2016)