Standing Up for Sheikh Hasina

Amid fears that the West may not recognise the new Awami League regime in Dhaka, which came to power unopposed after the Opposition boycotted the January 5 election, India has done well to offer a strong counter-narrative in favour of Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s 10th Jatiya Sangsad election has produced a diplomatic challenge for India which, if handled effectively, can be converted into an opportunity for New Delhi to re-establish its credentials as a regional leader. Boycotted by the Opposition, the vote was held this past Sunday in the shadow of violence, leading to a low turnout. Bangladesh’s deadliest national election ever, it expectedly produced an overwhelming, though hollow, victory for the incumbent Awami League regime which was voted into office for the next five years even before the first ballot had been cast.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is expected to form the next Government before the current Parliament expires on January 24, but there are fears that the new regime may not be recognised by the West. The US and EU had indicated as much when they refused to send their election observers and have since taken a strong stance against Prime Minister Hasina for failing to get the Opposition on board. Australia, Canada, the UK, the UN and the Commonwealth of Nations have all expressed varying degrees of disapproval as well. In contrast, India has acknowledged it as a “constitutional requirement”, and has been working with its international partners to ensure that Dhaka is not unfairly censured. This is a step in the right direction.

Over the years, Prime Minister Hasina has proven to be one of India’s most reliable friends in the region — she has cracked down on anti-India terror camps in her country and handed over rebels leaders in the North-East — but New Delhi has done little to hold up its side of the relationship. For instance, it has not been able to deliver on either the land border agreement or the Teesta water arrangement, making Ms Hasina vulnerable to much criticism at home. South Block’s efforts now to stand up for a friend it has somewhat disregarded in recent years, therefore, are important corrective measures. 

In December 2013, for instance, Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh, during her visit to the US, offered a strong counter-narrative to Washington, DC’s sharp criticism of the situation in Bangladesh. Previously, National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon had also discussed the matter with his counterpart in the UK and according to reports in the Bangladeshi media, the meeting went better than expected. This may explain the British foreign office’s more ‘accommodating’ position on the issue — it has not yet recognised the new regime per se, having only taken note of the election result, but at least has accepted that the vote was held in accordance with Bangladesh’s Constitution.

Additionally, New Delhi is also lobbying with the Commonwealth grouping to shield Dhaka from unwarranted criticism. Here, India’s has an upper-hand thanks to its membership to the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group. Overall, it is in the international arena that New Delhi will have to do most of the work because within Bangladesh, the political scenario is so charged and polarised, there is not much space for it to manoeuvre.

Prime Minister Hasina has been urged by New Delhi to resolve the problem through dialogue, and on her part, she has even offered to hold a fresh election if the Opposition discards its campaign of violence. But for now, it doesn’t seem like the latter is in the mood for reconciliation unless its key demand for a non-party caretaker Government is met.

This is unlikely given that the system was abolished in 2011 — with the approval of the courts — and, therefore, Prime Minister Hasina has no compelling reason to give up her ground. Besides, she had offered to meet the Opposition half-way with an all-party caretaker Government before the January 5 election but was rebuffed by an obstinate Khaleda Zia, who, as chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, heads the 18-party Opposition alliance.

Some analysts have suggested that India engage the Opposition in Dhaka — a fine thought, if only New Delhi had more leverage with Ms Zia. Unfortunately, the two-time former Prime Minister has kept herself at a distance. Over the past two years, in an attempt to appear even-handed in its dealings with Bangladesh, South Block has made several high-profile attempts to establish a better working relationship with Ms Zia even at the cost of upsetting Ms Hasina. These included a meeting with Vice President Hamid Ansari in Dhaka in 2011, an exclusive lunch with the Prime Minister in New Delhi in 2012 and  the offer for a tête-à-tête with President Pranab Mukherjee in Dhaka in 2013 (that she turned down) — but to no avail.

In fact, not only has Ms Zia refused to reciprocate Delhi’s goodwill gestures, she has heightened her anti-India sloganeering. This is not just a continuation of her traditional political strategies but also reflective of the increased political influence of her extremist ally, the Jamaat-e-Islami, which maintains a vitriolic opposition to India, not to mention collaborates with jihadi terror networks in the region. Once a fringe party, whose role was limited to providing the mainstream BNP with political muscle, the Jamaat has now emerged as the dominant partner in the relationship.

It seems like Ms Zia herself is still working out the changing dynamics of the partnership. For instance, after Jamaati leader Abdul Qader Mollah was executed for committing war crimes, the Islamists demanded that she take a strong stance on the matter. However, given the wave of popular support in favour of Mollah’s death sentence — this is what sparked the Shahbag protests in the first place — Ms Zia skirted the issue. In retaliation, the Jamaati cadre offered only a lukewarm response to her call to the country to march upon Dhaka in protest against the Hasina Government. Consequently, the much-touted December 29 mega protest march failed to take off.

Ultimately, Ms Zia will have to reconsider her alliance with the Jamaatis but in the foreseeable future, the political logjam in Dhaka will probably get worse before it gets better. Social unrest, in the form of hartals, blockades and nation-wide shutdowns will also continue, as the Opposition can be expected to turn up the heat. It is under these circumstances of political instability and uncertainty in Dhaka, fuelled by violence and anarchy on the streets across Bangladesh, that Prime Minister Hasina will take oath for her third consecutive term in office — and she will require the wholehearted support of her friends and allies.

(This article was published in the op-ed section of The Pioneer on January 9, 2014)